Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/13/2014 -- Ukraine remains a risky pharmaceutical market, despite having once been one of the most attractive markets in the Central and Eastern European region. In 2014, owing to the distressed economic situation in the country, drugmakers can expect a challenging business environment and capital outflow restrictions. Import taxes, pricing restrictions, and exchange rate volatility present significant risks to drugmakers operating in Ukraine, and will worsen the risk-reward ratio over the next two years. Over the long term, we find the market to be attractive due to an ageing population, demographic trends and a considerable disease burden, but the opportunity will be weighed down by pervasive macroeconomic risk and domestic instability.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: UAH36.20bn (USD4.44bn) in 2013 to UAH39.91bn (USD4.05bn) in 2014; +10.2% in local currency terms and -8.7% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast significantly lower in relation to previous quarter, on account of macroeconomic factors, exchange rate movements.
- Healthcare: UAH109.92bn (USD13.48bn) in 2013 to UAH107.61bn (USD10.92bn) in 2014; -2.1% in local currency terms and -18.9% in US dollar terms. US dollar and local currency forecast revised down significantly owing to budgetary cuts and exchange rate movement.
Risk/Reward Ratings: Ukraine is seen as one of the least promising longer-term pharmaceutical markets within the 20 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries surveyed in our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). While volume demand is expected to continue growing in the coming years, the country's operating environment remains extremely unfavourable in 2014, especially in the light of the present economic instability and fluid political situation. On almost every metric we measure, in both risk and reward, Ukraine's score in 2014 has worsened.
Key Trends & Developments
- Wholesalers and drugmakers will soon be forced to declare prices and these prices will be compared...
The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
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