Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/16/2014 -- The US agriculture sector is unlikely to repeat the performance of 2013, a record year for production and incomes , in 2014 . Grain production overall is expected to be lower due to a smaller area planted . That said , the grains sector looks relatively positive compared with livestock, where production will be flat in 2014. The pork sector is facing significant disease concerns from PEDv, while beef production will fall due to increased heifer retention. Fewer cattle facing slaughter will exacerbate record high retail beef prices. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks . Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex , and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains.
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- Beef production growth to 2017/18: 4% to 11.8 mn tonnes. We have again revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which is likely to lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.
- Corn consu mption growth to 2014: 5% to 307.1 mn tonnes. We are below consensus regarding US corn consumption owing to poor livestock production prospects.
- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18% to 23.8mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 2. 4 % year-on-year, up from 1.5% in 2013; predicted to average 2.4% from 2014 until 2018.
- Consumer price inflation (ave ): 1.8% in 201 4, up from 1.7% in 2013.
- Wheat production revised down
- Pork production revised down
- Beef production revised down
The United States Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in United States.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
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