Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/30/2013 -- BMI highlights rail freight as the mode to watch in 2013, with an number of developments underway that look set to change the players in the country's rail freight sector and also drive up cargo volume growth on the country's railway network.

BDZ Cargo, the national rail freight operator, was due to be privatised by the end of 2012, but at the time of writing (November 2012) no new sales date has been announced, leading BMI to believe that 2013 will be the year when Bulgaria's rail freight sector undergoes a shake-up.

New sales criteria, which have lowered the bar after a failed attempt in June 2012, are set to attract more competition for the BDZ Cargo concession - which offers greater likelihood of the sale of the rail freight unit being a success next time around.

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The new owner of BDZ Cargo will gain a dominant position in Bulgaria's rail freight sector, but will have to invest and expand to keep it, with a number of private operators, including a DB Schenker unit already operating in Bulgaria's rail freight sector. BMI expects box rail freight to be an area of growth potential for the rail freight sector in the medium term, having witnessed developments in this sector in Bulgaria in 2012, but also highlight that this is a Europe-wide trend.

A new private operator, bringing with them new expertise and investment will drive growth in rail freight in Bulgaria in 2013 and over the medium term. On the back of this we are forecasting rail freight to overtake inland waterway freight as Bulgaria's second largest freight mode, after road, in 2013 - a position it will hold and expand upon over the medium term.

BMI also believes that rail freight is best positioned to gain market share from road freight because Bulgaria, as a member of the EU, is committed to decreasing its reliance on road haulage and therefore tackling carbon emissions and congestion.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 air tonnage throughput forecast to increase 1.5% to reach 22,310 tonnes.
- 2013 rail tonnage throughput forecast to rise 8.8% to hit 15.8mn tonnes.
- 2013 road tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.9% to 144.5mn tonnes.
- 2013 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.4% to 10mn tonnes.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast to rise 5.8%.

Key Industry Trends

Brakes On Bulgaria-Greece Road Link-Up

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