Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/02/2013 -- BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Chinese port and shipping sector, highlighting that indicators continue to align to back our view of a slowdown in China's economic growth. China's economic imbalances have grown consistently over the past decade, to a point where we now believe they have reached a peak. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 7.1% in 2013. As well as slowing domestic demand, another major risk to container throughput at the port is decreasing import demand from the US and the EU. Exports of goods and services constitute 39.7% of China's GDP.
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Reflecting our concerns about sluggish global consumer demand, the ports of Shenzhen and Shanghai were one of the worst-hit ports of the top five during the first eight months of 2012; only recording throughput increases of 1% and 2% respectively for the period January to August 2012. The port is heavily exposed to demand for Chinese products from the main consumer markets of the US and Europe. With the US economy in recovery and the eurozone crisis leading many European states to dip into recession, exports passing through the facility have slowed.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.3%. Over our medium-term forecast period to 2017 we project average annual growth of
- 2013 Port of Shenzen container throughput forecast to grow 0.21%. Over our forecast period we project average annual growth of 2%.
- 2013 trade growth forecast at 2.5%, a considerable slowdown from 2011's estimated 9.41%.
Key Industry Trends
CIMC Diversifies Into Ship-Owning
The world's largest container manufacturer, China International Maritime Containers (CIMC) is diversifying into the ship-owning sector by ordering four container vessels, which it has signed long-term charters for. The strategy comes on the back of poor H112 results for the company and is a tactic which Greek companies used to much success in the previous downturn.
Chinese Tanker Pool To Drive Down Rates
BMI believes that the formation of a tanker pool by Chinese shipping companies will weigh on global rates in the coming years. With China becoming concerned about ensuring its energy supply, we believe that the country will take over responsibility for shipping ever increasing quantities of its own crude oil imports.
Deferrals Just One Problem For Shipbuilders
The size of the global idled box fleet continues to increase and now carriers are harking back to a strategy last utilised in 2009 at the height of the global shipping downturn, with some lines deferring their orders.
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