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Recently Released Market Study: Ecuador Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Ecuador Oil & Gas Report Q3 2012"

 

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 09/04/2012 -- BMI View: In spite of the volatile licensing and regulatory environment, Ecuador continues to attract some international investment and is pumping its own cash into field development in order to slow a decline in output and ward off falling oil exports. There is, however, limited scope for sustained volume growth.

The key trends and developments in Ecuador's oil & gas sector are:

- President Rafael Correa suggested on April 21 2012 that China could fully finance the US$12.5bn Refineria del Pacifico (RdP) project. He said that 'China is very interested in financing practically all [of the project]'. He also said that Chinese state companies China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec were interested in partnering to develop RdP. Ecuador is attempting to find up to three strategic investment partners for the 300,000 barrels a day (b/d) RdP refinery. The project was first mooted in 2008, but construction has not yet started, owing to repeated delays and escalating costs.
- Petroecuador has approved a US$3.75bn budget for 2012, including US$1.82bn for investment and US$1.93bn to cover operational costs. The company plans to channel US$530mn of the total investment into exploration and production (E&P), with US$337mn to go into refining. The investment will be used to conduct seismic tests, to drill 98 wells in Amazon District and to develop seismic programmes and gas field exploratory wells in the Gulf of Guayaquil.
- Ecuador expects private oil companies to boost investment by about 58% to US$694mn in 2012, Dow Jones said in a February 2012 report, citing Non-Renewable Natural Resources Minister Wilson Pastor. Pastor also said the South American nation plans to open concessions in 2012 for 21 oil blocks in the south-eastern part of the country, Dow reported.
- The oil production outlook remains uncertain, in spite of renewed efforts to boost investment and revive older fields. We forecast 2012 output to reach 515,500b/d, before a steady decline sets in, taking volumes to 480,500b/d in 2016 and 419,500b/d in 2021. Oil consumption is anticipated to be 210,170b/d in 2012, reaching 245,260b/d in 2016 and 291,710b/d in 2021.
- Gas output is estimated at 0.34bn cubic metres (bcm) for 2011. Although production should rise, our forecasts show volumes remaining below 1bcm over the entirety of our 10-year forecast period to 2021. All output is expected to be used to meet domestic demand. Over the long term, there is an option to develop a trans-Andean gas trade that would see gas from Venezuela and potentially Colombia flow into Ecuador, although we believe there is little likelihood of this ambitious plan becoming a reality.

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