Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 11/16/2012 -- The France Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country in the context of the hexagon's new political direction and continuing economic struggles.
Covering the entire country, with a data focus on the principal cities of Paris, Nice and Marseille, the report covers rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on a market already characterised by relative stagnation.
In general, prevailing economic sentiment in France remains subdued as consumers cut spending in the face of slow growth, high unemployment and austerity measures. A US$25bn package of tax increases and spending cuts for 2012 and 2013 failed to defend France's AAA credit rating. As a result, despite certain bright spots such as high-end retail, we maintain a bearish outlook for France's commercial real estate sector.
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- Peugeot's planned factory closures highlight the domestic problems caused by a rising lack of competitiveness in France. With policy intervention limited by France's commitment to European fiscal targets and the economic outlook still bleak, we believe that other companies will follow suit unless the issue of national competitiveness is addressed. As a result, we believe that President Francois Hollande's popularity will suffer in the near term as he struggles to reconcile his ambitious campaign promises with an increasingly challenging economic environment.
- The French economic model is looking increasingly threatened over the coming decade, with tepid growth, rising debt loads and persistent unemployment expected to characterise the country's long-term outlook. Despite this somewhat bleak prognosis, we highlight that we expect France to outperform relative to most of its regional peers.
- Despite possessing limited room for manoeuvre, the French government seems determined to carry through its vast infrastructure programme. With the closing of the Nimes-Montpellier project, the government has now put an end to France's ambitious EUR13bn high-speed rail public-private partnership scheme. In line with our view of capital scarcity and regulatory changes negatively affecting project finance, Caisse des Depots and the European Investment Bank will once again handle long-term refinancing operations.
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