Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/08/2013 -- BMI View: BMI projects that Indian consumer electronics spending will grow by about 17% in US dollar terms in 2013 to US$37.5bn, driven by rising incomes and growing affordability. PC market growth rebounded in Q212, despite a background of rising inflation and a weak rupee, which had led many consumers to defer their purchase decisions. Only nine out of 1,000 people in India own a computer, one-fifth of the level in China. Meanwhile, Indian mobile penetration is about 60%. Another long-term driver is that 45% of India's population is under 25. Spending on consumer electronics devices is projected to grow at an overall CAGR of 14% through to 2017, with the key segments including lowcost mobile handsets, colour TV sets, set-top boxes and notebook computers. Much of the growth during BMI's five-year forecast period will be driven by growing demand from India's relatively underpenetrated rural areas.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer Hardware Sales: US$9.7bn in 2012 to US$11.3bn in 2013, +17.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms upwardly revised due to analyst modification following a pick-up in unit sales growth in Q212.
- AV Sales: US$12.7bn in 2011 to US$15.3bnin 2013, +20% in US dollar terms. The result is upwardly revised due to analyst adjustment, with TV sets expected to provide the most dynamic development.
- Handset Sales: US$9.7bn in 2012 to US$10.8bn in 2013, +12% in US dollar terms. This figure is upwardly revised due to analyst adjustment, with vendors likely to increase their focus on semi-urban rural customers.
India's score is 49.9 out of 100.0, putting it in ninth place in our latest Asia Central Europe Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) table. BMI expects India to rise up the table over time owing to economic growth and the potentially vast market in rural and semi-rural areas.
Key Trends & Developments
- In 2013, strong growth opportunities are expected across the next 200-400 smaller cities in India, where vendors are expanding their retail and distribution presence. Around 45% of new PCs sold in the Indian market are now shipping outside the top 75 cities. The government's policy of providing tax breaks and subsidies for hardware manufacturers should help keep PC prices down and support growth. Meanwhile education procurements, such as those being implemented by Tamil Nadu state and others, will also drive volume sales.
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