Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/18/2013 -- BMI View: Progress has been made on reconstruction of essential infrastructure in the aftermath of Libya's civil war. Following a 79.0% contraction in real industry value in 2011, initial reconstruction combined with base effects is estimated to have propelled growth back to 35.4% in 2012. Whilst strong, this by no means spectacular given the context; with the ongoing violence and the lack of a strong political mandate in government, we believe more serious reconstruction will take some time to filter through. Consequently, we are not forecasting reconstruction to generate one boom year of growth, but rather strong, albeit gradually slowing, growth over the medium term, with double-digit growth expected each year until 2017.
Factors underlining our outlook for Libyan infrastructure:
- Returning oil production to pre-war levels was deemed the most important goal in the wake of the civil war. Oil production has indeed come back at a rapid pace, although BMI does not believe it will reach pre-war levels until 2013. This increase in production necessitates the repair of pipelines and export infrastructure.
- The electricity grid was one of the primary areas of focus in the aftermath of the civil war. The network incurred an estimated US$1bn in damage. Work started on repairing the grid in September 2011. As of Q312, over 70% of the network had been fixed.
- The provision of housing for those displaced by the war added to an already pressing housing shortage in the country. Immediate measures have taken place, with contracts for the construction of 2,500 prefabricated homes in Sirte, which was one of the cities most damaged during the fighting awarded in April 2012. In May 2012, Libya's Housing and Infrastructure Board (HIB) authorised 248 contracts for repairs to public housing in Tripoli and Benghazi, with a further 4,000 small contracts due to have been awarded in the second half of 2012. Addressing a more long-term solution will require the resumption of large housing projects that were under way before the war. The HIB has signed contracts for work to resume on three housing projects in Tripoli worth a combined LYD1.1bn.
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