Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/04/2012 -- Our Malaysia freight outlook remains comparable to last quarter, with subdued economic growth holding back transport demand. However, the release of new official freight volume data for past years has caused us to rework some current estimates and forecasts; in addition we continue to monitor a range of downside risks. On economic growth, we still take a below-consensus position, stressing the dampening effects of lower demand from the country's key export markets such as Singapore, the US, and China. We also note structural changes within the country that are shifting the drivers of growth from outward-facing exports to inward-based consumer demand, and from manufacturing to services.

BMI predicts GDP growth at 3.3%, down from 5.1% last year. The value of foreign trade (imports + exports) will grow by 3.4% in real terms, down from 4.5% in 2011. That said, we expect the country's major freight modes to continue to perform reasonably well for a variety of reasons. Port traffic is supported by greater reliance on intra-Asian and local trade, which is holding up better than global longhaul trade routes. Air freight is growing faster than GDP, while railway growth, in contrast, is more subdued this year.

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Headline Industry Data

- The real value of Malaysia's total trade will rise by a predicted 3.4% in 2012, a slowdown on the estimated 4.5% expansion experienced in 2011.
- Total cargo volume handled at Port Klang will rise by 7.7% to 209.1mn tonnes in 2012, while volume at the Port of Tanjung Pelepas will rise by a slightly higher 8.2% to 141.01mn tonnes.
- Rail freight volume is projected to rise 1.8% to 6.203mn tonnes in 2012 and to average 4.0% annual growth in the five-year period to 2016.
- Air freight volume is set to grow by 4.1% to 8.471mn tonnes in 2012, down on the 7.0% growth rate achieved in 2011.

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