Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/03/2012 -- BMI View: In the face of rising energy consumption, the Peruvian government has taken a number of steps to ensure the country has adequate power generation capabilities. At least three new thermal power plants are expected to become operational in the coming quarters and a number of new hydroelectric plants will come online between 2015 and 2016. That said, we highlight that there are still some risks to our more optimistic outlook for the sector, including a high level of regional differentiation in power generating capacity and the potential for local opposition to cause delays to hydroelectric projects.
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Between 2012 and 2016 we forecast that electricity consumption in Peru will grow by a steady 5.3%, driven primarily by the country's rapidly expanding mining sector. In order to ensure that production is sufficient to keep up with the rising demand, the government announced plans in March 2012 to increase thermal and hydroelectric power generation, bringing online an additional 4.3 gigawatts (GW) by 2016.
In the short term, additional thermal power stations will drive the increase in generational capacity, with two plants scheduled to be operational by end-2012 and a third, Santa Domingo de los Olleros, expected to be completed by Q313. Meanwhile, toward the latter part of our forecast period, a number of largescale hydroelectric projects are expected to be completed. Finally, while we expect non-hydroelectric renewable power generation capacity to grow robustly, we highlight that it is coming up from a very low base, accounting for only 1.5% of total power generation in 2011. As such, it will have a rather limited impact on the country's total power generation capacity. Overall, we forecast that Peru's power generational will grow by an annual average of 5.3% over our medium-term forecast period, from 39.1 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2012 to 48.4TWh by 2016, before rising to 62.3TWh by 2021.
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