Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 08/30/2012 -- The Slovenian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Slovenia's economic outlook of aggressive fiscal austerity, weak credit conditions and depressed domestic economic confidence.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Slovenian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of faltering economic activity in the eurozone on the Slovenian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Slovenian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Slovenian per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 14% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 59%. The country comes fourth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, where it performs better for Risk.
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Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be one of the strongest performers through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales predicted to increase from US$0.10bn in 2012 to US$0.11bn by 2016, a rise of 10%. The relatively low cost of OTC medicines should be the key growth driver, as the sector increases its market share at the expense of the prescription drugs market. In the longer run, generational change and better visibility of OTC products will help the self-medication sector develop.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that the Slovenian government is offering tax breaks for research and development (R&D) and less-developed regions.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI has revised down both its estimate for 2011 real GDP growth as well as its forecasts for both 2012 and 2013. We now estimate that 2011 growth came in at just 0.5% (down from 1.1% previously) while the economy is now forecast to expand by a mere 0.3% and 1.7% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, down from 0.5% and 2.6% previously.
- BMI forecasts Slovenian private consumption to be flat in 2012, following 0.2% growth in real terms in 2011. According to the latest data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, real GDP growth has been falling since Q410, when the economy expanded by 2.3%.
- As of Q311, growth turned negative to the tune of 0.5%; and, while Q411 data has yet to be released, we do not expect the headline reading to have improved measurably.
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