Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/28/2012 -- Turkmenistan could potentially benefit from a gas export bonanza, with a major reserves upgrade at the South Yolotan field providing the basis for long-term supply agreements that should transform the country's economic outlook. There are technical and commercial hurdles to overcome, but timely infrastructure investment and moves to improve international relations should guarantee that Turkmenistan becomes a key player in global gas supply.

The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil & gas sector are:

- Turkmenistan's South Yolotan gas field has been confirmed as the world's second largest following an appraisal by auditor Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA). The field is thought to contain 13.1-21.2trn cubic metres (tcm) of natural gas. The former Soviet Republic holds the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves and plans to treble annual gas output to 230bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2030, 180bcm of which would be for export.
- Customs data suggests that 14.3bcm was exported from Turkmenistan to China in 2011, a significant increase from the 3.55bcm of contracted gas traded between the two countries in 2010, according to Cedigaz data. Based on the 6.6bcm that have been traded between the two countries in the first third of 2012, we expect total volumes to reach around 20bcm this year. The two countries are in negotiations over a long-term contract to supply 65bcm per year to China.
- Our forecasts suggest that the country's gas output will increase from an estimated 65bcm in 2011 to 95bcm by 2016, with a further substantial increase to 155bcm by 2021 as additional fields enter production. Domestic demand is expected to rise from an estimated 22bcm to 31bcm during the 2011-2016 period. By 2016, Turkmenistan will be exporting 64bcm, with this figure to rise to 110bcm by 2021.
- The government is targeting higher liquids production, but the oil sector is struggling to meet its growth goals owing to a shift to gas production and lagging foreign investment. According to 2007 reports, Turkmenistan had initially aimed to produce 2.2mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2030. Although this target has been reduced to 1.35mn b/d by 2030, according to an unnamed source speaking to Reuters in March 2011, we still see this output target as rather optimistic. BMI estimates oil production averaged 207,190b/d in 2011 and forecast this rising to 346,500b/d by 2016.
- The country exports roughly half of its production. Local demand is estimated to have hit 125,000b/d in 2011 and is subsidised by the Turkmen government. BMI forecasts demand to increase to 159,000b/d by 2016, leaving export potential of 187,000b/d.

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