Metals Report Q4 2012 for Belgium, Egypt Austria and Multiple Countries Analyzed in Research Report at RnRMarketResearch.com


Dallas, TX -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/30/2012 -- RnRMarketResearch.com adds Q4 2012 reports on Metal Market for Belgium, Egypt Austria and Multiple Countries to its store.

Belgium Metals Report Q4 2012

Belgium Metals Report for Q412 examines the long-term effects of the economic crisis on the
country’s steelmaking capacities and warns that the sector will never recover. The report examines how a collapse in domestic production will impact on the country’s structure of steel trade and explores the ability of exporters to take advantage of the crisis facing the Belgian steel industry.

In the first seven months of 2012, Belgian crude steel output slumped 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to
4.37mn tonnes (mnt), one of the worst performances in the EU. This continued the trend witnessed in
Q411 when output plummeted 17.9% y-o-y. The decline reverses the gains witnessed in the early months of 2012 when capacity utilisation rates were returning to near pre-crisis levels, matched by a rebound in export receipts and rising business confidence. Furnace closures by Duferco and ArcelorMittal mean that Belgium will not return to pre-crisis volumes of production even after the market picks up.
A decline in demand growth in export markets has dealt a blow for the Belgian steel industry.
ArcelorMittal’s planned permanent closure of two blast furnaces in Liège, which were shuttered in
August 2011, is now inevitable and as a result the industry will not return to pre-2008 levels of
production. By Q312, available crude steel capacity was limited to just over 7mn tonnes per annum
(mntpa), although rolling operations remained in action. Duferco has permanently closed its Carsid site
after talks with potential takeover candidates failed. This will permanently remove the 2.1mntpa of slab
capacity that had been taken offline in 2008. It also ended Duferco’s crude steelmaking activities in

- ArcelorMittal’s downstream operations could be subject to closure if ArcelorMittal decides that
they are contributing to over-capacity and poor margins amid a collapse in European demand
and a severe imbalance in the market.
- It will be 2015 at the earliest before domestic crude steel consumption exceeds 5mn tonnes
again. Once more, a sharp slowdown in 2012 will mean it will take a four- or five-year period
for domestic consumption to return to pre-recession levels, with 2016 consumption reaching
around 5.26mn tonnes, a level more typical of the years prior to the collapse in demand.
- Economic recession combined with idling of blast furnaces confirms our forecast of a 10%
contraction in crude steel output to 7.3mnt in 2012.
- BMI believes that it is unlikely that crude steel output will exceed much beyond 8mntpa over thelong-term due to capacity closures, down over a quarter from the pre-2008 levels.

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Egypt Metals Report Q4 2012
Egypt Metals Report for Q412 examines the impact of political developments on domestic demand
and output in 2012. The report examines the influence of the weak Egyptian pound on the sector and
whether depreciation is sufficient to compete in an over-supplied regional market. It also examines the
promise of expansion in primary aluminium smelting with Egyptalum seeking to expand production to
400,000 tonnes per annum (tpa). The report also analyses the trends in export markets, particularly in
relation to the surge in steelmaking in the Arabian Gulf region.

In the first seven months of 2012, base effects led to 2.6% growth in crude steel output to 3.9mn tonnes(mnt). Towards the end of the period monthly crude output rates appeared to be on a strong upward trend. However, flat and long sales on the domestic market were sluggish with rebar at very low levels due to a climate of uncertainty around the elections as well as a slowdown in activity associated with Ramadan.
BMI is confident that as the new civilian democratic government finds its feet, investment and
manufacturing activity will pick up in the months ahead, which should support the upward domestic
production trend going forward.
In addition to more favourable market dynamics, BMI’s forecast for 2013 is supported by Elmarakby
Steel’s plans to open its first meltshop to produce steel billets from scrap by end-2013. The 350,000tpa EAF in Giza will feed an existing 240,000tpa rolling mill with the remainder exported or sold on the domestic market. The country has been operating well under full capacity, with a utilisation rate under its 8.8mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) potential. Even without further capacity expansion, Egypt has the potential to grow over 30% from 2010 levels using currently operating plants.
Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts/views:

- Despite the effects of political instability in the short term, BMI still expects annual crude output
to reach 11.04mnt by 2016. Although this represents a 72% increase over 2011 levels, it will be
just enough to keep up with domestic requirements.
- Egyptian crude steel output should grow 4% to 6.7mnt, an upward revision from the 3% growth
forecast previously.
- BMI anticipates 2% growth in steel consumption to 10.1mnt in 2012, a downward revision from
4% growth previously forecast due to the downturn in consumption witnessed during the May
and June elections.

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Austria Metals Report Q4 2012
Austria Metals Report for Q4 2012 examines the long-term potential of the country’s speciality
steel sector, but warns that reliance on the EU market poses a significant risk in the short-term.
The report examines how the industry is seeking to overcome a challenging external environment through innovation and investment. The report also explores the metals industry’s relationship with the
automotive sector. The growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Austrian metals industry are also analysed, as they look to emerging markets for growth.
Austria’s leading steelmaker Voestalpine has thrived on strong demand for the special steel used in toolsand turbines, which largely rode out the recession, and the country’s steel industry has benefited from efficiency improvements and cost optimisation programmes. In H111, it thrived as a result of its specialisation in high quality sectors and its relationship with the German automotive industry, which experienced a solid recovery, as well as machine making and advanced energy technologies. However, the rebound was not sustained through H211 and into 2012. The performance of Austria’s steel industry deteriorated in the first seven months of 2012 when crude output declined 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 4.43mn tonnes (mnt). Although volume has contracted, Austria still outperformed the 4.6% contraction reported for the whole of the EU. Voestalpine is also upbeat, expressing its confidence that business will pick up. While volume may not
increase, sales could be boosted by a rise in product prices. Austrian steelmaking has suffered from the structural oversupply of standard grades, which has driven down prices on the EU market despite
cutbacks in output. This has put downward pressure on margins, although there is no immediate sign of
any idling of capacity. However, capacity constraints will prevent any further significant growth in crude steel over the long term, although BMI expects investment in downstream sectors.

Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts/views:

- BMI has maintained its crude steel production growth forecast of 0.1% to 7.5mnt for 2012. We
anticipate slow but steady growth from 2013 in line with European market trends.
- Domestic finished steel consumption is set to resume growth from 2013 and by 2016 should
exceed levels seen before the 2008 financial crisis.
- In the aluminium market, trends will mirror steel consumption although the trend will be
stronger due to the reliance on consumer goods and automotive sectors, with a 7% decline in
consumption to 320,000 tonnes in 2012, following growth of 15% to 344,000 tonnes in 2011. By
2016, consumption rates should be exceeding 381,000 tonnes.

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