Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/12/2014 -- The market for type 2 diabetes contains a wide range of drugs that are used to treat patients at different points in the treatment algorithm. The market landscape is dense, with a number of drugs competing for different market segments. Although the first-line therapy is usually metformin, a generic drug, it is often unable to bring the disease under control. Second-line therapy involves the use of other drugs in combination with metformin, and at this stage of the treatment algorithm competition between products is very strong. The established second-line therapy involves the use of sulfonylureas, a highly generalized class of drugs, in combination with metformin. The usage of this class of drug is likely to decline in future, due to the recent approval of superior products and the anticipated approval of stronger products over the 2013-2020 forecast period.

The value of the market for type 2 diabetes in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets (for the purposes of this report, APAC refers to Australia, China, India and Japan only), is expected to increase from $6.5 billion in 2013 to $10.5 billion in 2020 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.1%. This strong growth is due to the anticipated approval of products in relatively novel treatment classes, such as Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists, Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and Sodium Glucose Transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors; and the growth of the type 2 diabetes prevalence population in the APAC region, especially in India and China.

Among the four APAC markets, Japan has the highest market share of 51% followed by China with 30% and India with 14%. In a best-case scenario, the total market size is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.1% to $11.2 billion by the end of 2020, while in a worst-case scenario it is expected to grow at a slower CAGR of 6.6% to $10.2 billion by the end of 2020. Should the expensive drug classes mentioned above capture substantial market shares, market growth would be even more robust.

Strong Pipeline Containing a Diverse Set of Products:

The pipeline for type 2 diabetes contains 591 products, distributed relatively evenly between the different stages of development with the exception of the Preclinical stage, which accounts for 42% of the entire pipeline. 20 products have been identified as being in the registration process for marketing approval, although many of these are novel formulations or combinations of existing products, and are not expected to influence the market to a great degree compared with entirely novel products.

The active pipeline molecules, which amount to 591, consist of the following:

- Discovery Phase: 14% or 83 molecules
- Investigational New Drug (IND)/Clinical Trial Approval (CTA)-filed Phase: 1% or four molecules
- Preclinical Phase: 42% or 248 molecules
- Phase I: 14% or 84 molecules
- Phase II: 15% or 988 molecules
- Phase III: 8% or 46 molecules
- Pre-registration: 3% or 20 molecules
- Undisclosed: 3% or 18 molecule

Six late-stage pipeline products are expected to be launched during the forecast period, such as dulaglutide, albiglutide, trelagliptin, and tofogliflozin. There are six more molecules that are only available in part of the APAC region but that are expected to be launched in the remaining countries during the forecast period, such as lixisenatide, which is marketed in Australia but has not yet been approved in India, China and Japan. However, the new pipeline does not include any novel Mechanisms of Action (MoA) and is dominated by drug MoAs that have already been marketed, such as SGLT, DPP-4, and GLP-1 receptor agonist.

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