Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/26/2014 -- The Ukraine crisis poses substantial risks to Hungary's power outlook over the next year, with the potential for disruptions to gas supplies from Russia still elevated despite our Country Risk team's view for a de-escalation of tensions in the region. Over the remainder of our 10-year forecast period Hungary will remain within Russia's sphere of energy influence given not only the reliance on Russian gas, but also the loan of EUR10bn provided by Moscow to upgrade the Paks nuclear power plant.
Key Trends And Developments
- In May Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban supported calls for closer integration between the energy sectors of Central Europe to reduce the impact of any halts to Russian gas supplies as a result of the Ukraine crisis. At a conference with the Prime Ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Orban stated: 'Wwhat's happening politically [could be] a huge blow for Central European economic possibilities". We believe further integration of the region's energy networks would reduce short-term risks posed by an unstable political environment, but would not address the issue of Russian gas dependency for CEE nations.
- Hungarian total power generation is set to expand at an average 0.9% per annum across the period 2014-2023. We also forecast consumption to tick up across the forecast period, at an average rate of 1.3% per annum over the same period. This is a sign of the developed nature of Hungary's power sector, but also raises the probability that the country will continue to be a net importer of energy.
- Russian state atomic energy concern Rosatom is set to carry out work constructing two new reactors at the Paks nuclear power plant, following the deal between the Hungarian and Russian governments, approved by parliament in February. The work will be financed by a EUR10bn credit line provided by the Russian government, to be repaid over 21 years, once work has been completed. The reactors are set to come online in...
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The Hungary Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Hungary Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Hungary to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Hungary's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Hungary
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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