Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/16/2013 -- BMI remains optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook, forecasting real GDP growth to average 4.0% between 2013 and 2022 on the back of Mexico's booming manufacturing sector, increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. That said, we believe that the ability for Mexico to reverse its severe macroeconomic imbalances and generate the robust growth necessary to propel it to 'developed market' status still hinges on the passage of substantive energy sector reform.
We are modestly revising up our 2013 real GDP growth forecast, from 3.4% to 3.6% to take into account potential for a stronger export and investment picture, in light of our recent upward adjustment to US growth. That said, this still represents a noticeable slowdown from our estimated 4.0% growth in 2012.
Headline Industry Data
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 4.5% in 2013, to reach 118mn tonnes
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 3% in 2013, to reach 539mn tonnes.
- Air freight tonnes/km forecast to grow 9% in 2013, to reach 1.5mn tonnes/km.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2013 is estimated to hit 6.6% growth to reach 28mn tonnes.
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Key Trends And Developments
NAFTA Surface Trade Growth Benefits Investors
BMI believes that the recently released figures showing a marked increase in the value of trade transported by land between the US and Mexico is both testament to investment already made, and will lead to increased investment by port operators and rail freight companies in improving land links. Ports such as APM Terminals' new Lazaro Cardenas and rail freight company Kansas City Southern are among those that stand to benefit through the continued growth.
Pemex Takes Delivery Of Two New Ships
Oil giant Pemex took delivery of two ships from South Korea's SPP Shipbuilding Group. The vessels are designed to meet the highest environmental and technology standards, allowing for an upgrade of the existing fleet, Pemex said. Pemex CEO Emilio Lozoya Austin took delivery in Pusan of the ships, which are called the Centla and the Jaguaroundi, the state-owned energy company said. Two more ships are scheduled to be delivered soon, Pemex added.
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