Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/17/2014 -- We have largely maintained our optimistic forecasts for Nigeria's power sector this quarter and forecast annual average growth in electricity generation of 9% through to 2023. W ith the unbundling of PHCN all but completed, attention is now turning to the auctioning of 10 gas-fired power plants under the NIPP strategy - supporting our upbeat outlook. That said, there are certainly considerable downside risks to our forecasts, as highlighted by concerns about the condition of T&D infrastructure and the fact the launch of a transitional electricity market (TEM) has been delayed due to disputes over tariffs and gas supply shortages. We believe a failure to secure adequate gas feedstock remains the biggest risk to Nigeria's efforts to ramp up power generation capacity, which is needed to meet pent-up demand.
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In a move that indicates Nigeria's power sector could be on the verge of realising some of its considerable potential, state-owned Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) ceased to exist in late 2013 after the federal government handed ownership of successor companies to the private sector. Although it had been eight years since the laws were passed to facilitate the process, the news was hugely significant for Nigeria as it attempts to draw vast sums of private investment into the power sector. Investment is needed to establish the generation capacity required to meet surging demand for electricity and support rapid economic growth. Nigeria possesses a host of attractive power sector specific and macroeconomic fundamentals that underpin our forecast, with huge untapped demand for electricity among the country's 180mn people, and BMI's Country Risk team forecasting average annual real GDP growth of close to 7% between 2013 and 2023.
Taking these factors into account, we have maintained our cautiously optimistic view of the Nigerian power sector and continue to forecast annual average growth in electricity generation of 9% over our forecast period...
The Nigeria Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Nigeria Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Nigeria to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Nigeria's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Nigeria
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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