Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/04/2014 -- Romania's metals sector will continue to see modest growth over the coming years as it slowly recovers from the global downturn. This is primarily the case for steel, the largest sub-component of Romania's metals sector. With modest growth in both autos production and the country's construction sector, we expect modest growth in steel output over the next five years. In addition, with our expectation for steel prices to head broadly lower over the coming years, we see few sources of encouragement for the sector. Therefore, whilst we forecast modest growth in output, it will remain far off 2007 highs.

Romanian crude steel output demonstrated modest growth in 2013 of 1.0%, however, production is still more than a third less than pre-2008 levels. BMI forecasts an acceleration in growth in 2014 at 2.0% y-oy, however, to reach 3.39mnt of crude steel. We expect growth to accelerate further by 2.4% in 2015, to reach 3.47mnt.

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With positive growth in the metals-intensive sectors of construction and autos - discussed below in further detail - within Romania, we are fairly optimistic these sectors will offer upside support to Romania's steel industry. We see these industries as helping Romania's economy as a whole begin to gain strength from 2014 onwards when we forecast real GDP growth of 2.8% y-o-y. Over the medium term, BMI forecasts Romanian steel production growth between 2014 and 2018 to show an annual average growth rate of 1.5%.

Growth has been supported by ArcelorMittal Galati's new steel mill in Hunedoara with a EUR43mn rolling mill, which came into operation in Q312. Additionally, the company increased liquid steel production to 700,000tpa to raise output of round semis at its Tubular Products Roman plant. The steelmaker is investing over EUR25.0mn in upgrading and improving production quality at its plate mill No. 2. Following the mill's modernisation, the company will be able to produce new types of plate, which will allow it to enter new markets. These downstream projects will boost the value of Romanian steelmaking.

On an intercontinental level, in February 2014 the European Parliament passed a resolution backing a plan to revive the bloc's steel industry, calling on the European Commission and member states to adopt "economically feasible" climate and energy targets. The resolution came just two weeks after the Commission scaled down its 2030 climate and energy targets and underlines a new sense of pragmatism in Brussels at a when European growth is slow. In a move unlikely to be popular with the green lobby, the resolution said the most energy efficient steel plants in Europe should not have to bear any additional costs resulting from EU climate policies. It was not immediately clear how the resolution will tally with attempts by the Commission to prop up the EU carbon prices by delaying the sale of, or backloading, carbon permits - a major additional cost for industries like steel.

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