Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/25/2014 -- We expect to see growth in Russian Consumer Electronics driven by demand for digital lifestyle products such as smartphones, smart TVs and tablets/ultra-thin notebooks. Penetration of these devices still remains low by developed market standards but with local players such as YotaDevices , Explay and FLY beginning to make an impact in the market, we expect strong uptake to continue. However, our outlook has weakened slightly given the unstable domestic economic environment and uncertainty surrounding the situation in Crimea. Indeed, we forecast real GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in 2014, a marked slowdown from the 3.4% outturn in 2012, as the fallout from the Ukraine crisis will worsen the cyclical downturn . We still expect the consumer electronics market to record growth every year in our forecast period to 2018, but there is increased downside. We now expect spending to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% 2014-2018, to reach a value of USD 35.446bn in 2018.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer H ardware S ales: USD12.4bn in 2013 to USD11.9bn in 2014, +4.7% in US dollar terms. The computer market will be hit by rouble depreciation, a drag on a big-ticket item market. Meanwhile, the continued shift from notebooks to low-cost tablets will also be a drag on value growth.
AV Sales: USD9.8bn in 2013 to USD10.2bn in 2014, +5.0% in US dollar terms. After the market contracted in 2012 as digital camera volumes declined, we expect the market to rebound as the camera market stabilises, and TV and games console spending drive growth.
Handset Sales: USD8.5bn in 2013 to USD9.0bn in 2014, +3.2% in US dollar terms. The increased share of smartphones in the overall handset sales mix will drive growth, but with low-cost Android devices seeing the fastest growth market value increases will temper over the medium term after a boom in 2012 and 2013.
Key Trends And Developments
The Russian handset market underwent a...
The Russia Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Russia.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Russia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
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