Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/14/2013 -- BMI View: Easing Into Steady Growth Despite Eurozone Problems
There is no denying that Slovenia is heading towards a period of deep economic uncertainty and, as such, the likelihood of the government requesting financial aid via the eurozone bailout facility remains substantial. In line with our view for a broad-based deterioration in Slovenian economic activity over the course of 2012, all components of GDP by expenditure registered negative y-o-y growth in Q212.
Given the extent of the deterioration in both the domestic and external environment, we have been prompted to downgrade our real GDP forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to -1.7% and 0.5% respectively, from -1.0% and 1.0% previously. We anticipate further downgrades for domestic banks and the sovereign by the major credit rating agencies over the next few months.
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While Slovenia's trade dependence on the stronger eurozone economies (Germany, Austria and France) will help avoid a massive slump in export volumes, we have nonetheless been forced to revise down export growth to 4.9% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013, down from 5.0% and 4.5% previously. Imports will be hit to some extent owing to depressed domestic demand; however, net exports will not be sufficient to lift headline GDP out of the red this year.
The country's air freight sector is set to lead the way within the freight mix this year, with healthy growth coming in at over 5.50%. The Port of Koper will also enjoy similar growth to this in 2013 (5.48%), while the rail freight sector will drag behind the other modes in terms of forecast annual growth.
Headline Industry Data
- 2013 air freight tonnage is forecast to increase 5.61% year-on-year to 7,870 tonnes
- 2013 rail freight tonnage is forecast to rise 2.96% to 18.01mn tonnes
- 2013 road freight tonnage throughput is predicted to grow 3.55% to 80.10mn tonnes
- 2013 port of Koper tonnage growth is expected to increase by 5.48% to 19.34mn tonnes
- Total trade in 2013 is forecast to increase by 4.00% in real terms
Key Industry Trends
New Rail Ruote Links Slovenia With Poland
A new rail link was announced in September 2012 linking Slovenia with Katowice, Poland. This follows the new link opened between Katowice and northern Polish ports Gdansk and Gdynia. By increasing the amount of trains and diversifying the links available, the Slovenian Port of Koper should definitely benefit.
Privatisation Of Adria Airways Begins
Adria Airways could be privatised by the end of 2012, it was announced back in May, as the Slovenian government seeks to rid itself of an organisation suffering from heavy financial losses and dropping passenger numbers. Among the interested parties are believed to be Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines, according to EX-YU Aviation News.
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