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South Africa Power Report Q3 2014 - New Market Research Report

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/13/2014 -- Our fundamental assumptions of the market continue to be relevant and therefore our short- and long-term forecasts remain mostly unchanged. Eskom continues to struggle to supply reliable and stable power to the population and industry Delays in bringing large-scale power capacity online and insufficient investment in the sector have left South Africa vulnerable to power shortages, evidenced by the recent rolling blackouts in March 2014. That said, we see some positive development in the renewable sector which has led us to t his upwardly revise our wind and solar capacity and generation forecasts for the country this quarter. The attractive regulatory environment, high investor interest, the strong project pipeline and lack of delays in bringing projects online underpin our positive outlook for the sector.

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In 2013, electricity generation in South Africa stood at 241.93terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.04% increase on the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for 93.88% of this figure, and we expect that coal will continue to play a major role in electricity production during the course of our forecast period, rising by an average of 2.61% to stand at 293.82TWh in 2023. Economic growth - we forecast real GDP of around 3.11% every year during our 10-year forecast period to 2023 - and demographics will both drive demand upwards.

Key Trends And Developments

- Power cuts continue to plague the country after. In June 2014, Eskom said that although it had enough generating capacity to meet daytime demand, during the evening peak the electricity demand increased up to 36,000MW. As such, they said that could consider implementing rotational power cuts.
- Renewable energy is gaining popularity in the country. Initially we expected that there would be delays when bringing projects online, given the country's past experience with commissioning power projects, notably the Kusile and Medupi coal-fired facilities (see...

The South Africa Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The South Africa Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks South Africa's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in South Africa
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

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