Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/11/2014 -- Despite the current troubled state of the domestic mining industry and rising interest rates, South Africa's retail sector is expected to grow steadily over the next few years as the country's increasingly sophisticated urban population and expanding black middle class continue to spend on non-essential items such as clothing and furnishings. This will result in a strong rise in household spending across all retail subsectors. We are particularly bullish about the future growth prospects for restaurants & hotel spending, as well as education and personal care. However, we expect housing & utilities expenditure to remain by far the highest throughout our forecast period.
The South Africa Retail Report provides an extensive and comprehensive forecast of various retail indicators including household spending, and headline total spending across each retail subsector, household income and employment forecasts, demographic forecasts, and a detailed breakdown of household and per capita spending across a large number of retail areas including food & drink, healthcare and insurance, consumer electronics, toys, pets, gardens, household goods, and a number of other subsectors.
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The South African retail market is less developed than those of some other regional peers, with spaza outlets, which sell household goods from residential premises, still popular. However, in the mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, positive growth is being achieved through franchising and through the purchase by major chains of smaller independents operating in former homelands and rural towns. Shopping centres, meanwhile, continue to spring up, attracting both regional and global retailers.
We forecast that the average net household income will be around USD7,886 in 2014, with almost a third of all households in the lowest income bracket of USD5,000+. However, household income is forecast to almost double to USD14,206 by 2018, when a projected 31.6% of households will be in the...
The South Africa Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's South Africa Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for South Africa to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the South African retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in South Africa through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI?s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);
Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (?000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes ? US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (?000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (?000, % change)
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