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"Taiwan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014" Published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Taiwan Oil & Gas Report Q2 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/19/2014 -- Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on imports to meet energy demand and is likely to stay in this state for the foreseeable future. A growing appetite for imported gas has created a need for fresh liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchase schemes, with Australian and Qatari volumes on the rise and Papua New Guinea set to become a new source of supply. The government has also allotted a monthly budget of approximately NT$17mn per month towards exploration activities, with operators eyeing deepwater exploration off Taiwan's south-western coast and near Itu Aba island, the largest island in the disputed and potentially oil-rich Spratly chain in the South China Sea.

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The main trends and developments we highlight in the Taiwanese oil and gas sector are:

- Rising oil prices announced by the nation's two oil refiners in December 2013 stoked concerns about supplies from violence-hit South Sudan. CPC Corp and Formosa Petrochemical Corp both announced NT$0.50 per litre rises
- Exploration efforts are also centred around Itu Aba Island, which may prove to be a source of political tension between Taiwan and other South China Sea territorial claimants. This is particularly true for China, which has itself devoted considerable resources towards the exploration and development of oil and gas fields in both the South and East China Seas. The location for a third liquefied natural gas terminal has been finalised and is set to be constructed near Taipei. Operations are expected to commence in 2018.

- Large industrial demand is inherent in the country's energy equation. Consumption of oil is therefore expected to move broadly in line with GDP trend. However, oil consumption growth could be slightly subdued with governmental plans to increase gas-fired power generation capacity, renewables and various policies aiming at increasing energy efficiency. Our forecast for crude oil consumption is for an increase from a planned 1.09mn b/d in 2013, to around 1.21mn b/d in 2017 and to 1.37mn b/d by 2022.
- In terms of gas consumption, Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-shiang in October 2011 highlighted the central role of gas in the country's future energy mix, planning for Taiwan's gas-fired power generation capacity to increase 67% by 2030. We expect gas consumption to rise slowly until 2018, and to increase at a faster pace after 2018 when the planned Taipei LNG import terminal comes online. Taiwanese consumption should be around 17.3bcm in 2013. We forecast for gas consumption to increase from an estimated 17.6bcm in 2013 to 18.4bcm in 2017, and to 21.5bcm by 2022. - The country's current LNG import capacity could temporarily limit the growth of LNG imports, and therefore of gas consumption. The construction of a planned LNG terminal in 2018 could relieve some of the pressure. We therefore expect gas consumption to grow slowly until 2018, and to increase at a faster -

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