Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/19/2014 -- Growth Forecast Reduced For 2014
Since our last quarterly report we have reined in our outlook for Thailand. We now estimate 2013 GDP growth at 3.6% (reduced from 4.0%) and are forecasting 2014 growth at 3.8% (down from 4.5% earlier). Two main factors explain this adjustment. First, data for Q313 shows that cooling external demand has begun to have an impact on household spending and business investment. Second, an upsurge in political tensions in November/December 2013 has again increased worries over the country's immediate future.
Mass demonstrations against the 'red shirt' government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra by her 'yellow shirt' opponents eventually passed off without major violence. The Prime Minister, defeated in her attempt to pass an amnesty law and reform the Senate (steps seen as designed to prepare the return to Thailand of her controversial brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) has instead called new elections for February 2014. This means that there will be a short-term pause before the country's prospects become clearer.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
In 2014, freight sector activity will be broadly in line with the pace of GDP and foreign trade growth. Road freight, rail freight, air freight and maritime cargo will all expand within the 1.0%-6.0% range. We note that foreign trade growth, at 5.0% in real terms, will outstrip GDP expansion of 3.8%.
Headline Industry Data
- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 5.5%, to 48.01mn tonnes in 2014 (compared to the estimated 5.0% growth in 2013).
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI now projects that tonnage growth will reach 4.2% growth in 2014 (marginally up from 4.1% in 2013), to 20.233mn tonnes.
- We now expect the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.0% in 2014, with imports up by 5.4% and exports up by a smaller amount, at 4.5%.
- 2014 air freight tonnage growth forecast at 3.5% and to average 3.6% a year to 2018.
- 2014 rail freight tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 3.9%, to 12.870mn tonnes, and to grow on average by 2.7% a year to 2018.
- Road freight tonnage expected to increase by 1.3% in 2014, to reach 444.196mn tonnes
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Transportation research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Hungary Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Russia Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Romania Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Australia Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Iran Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- South Africa Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Belgium Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Israel Freight Transport Report Q1 2014
- Mexico Freight Transport Report Q1 2014