Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/22/2014 -- The Thai military's assumption of power following failed talks between rival factions in the ongoing political crisis raises the prospect of an unelected government being installed. Such a move would risk a violent pro-government backlash, and we maintain our view that the path of least resistance is for escalating violent unrest. As a result, Thailand's economy is feeling the strain of the ongoing political turmoil, with real GDP growth contracting by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q114, and it is difficult to see a quick recovery given our view that there is no end in sight to the crisis. The manufacturing and construction sectors are coming under pressure, while outperformance on the external front looks like it's here to stay.
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Although some of our freight throughput forecasts are unchanged from last quarter, we had already 'priced in' a fair amount of political risk. The fact that cranes have been moved to Laem Chabang to help the port cope with demand is encouraging. Nevertheless, risks to all our freight throughput forecasts are tilted very much to the downside in light of ongoing developments.
Headline Industry Data
- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, set to rise by 3.0% to 69.08mn tonnes in 2014, and will average growth of 3.8% a year over our medium-term forecast period to 2018.
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI projects that tonnage will grow by 3.2% in 2014, to 21.01mn tonnes, with container handling set to grow by 7.0%, to 1.61mn TEUs.
- We forecast the real value of foreign trade to grow 1.1% in 2014, with imports up by 0.2% and exports up by 2.0%.
- 2014 air freight tonnage growth forecast at 1.2% and to average 1.8% a year to 2018.
- 2014 rail freight tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 4.9%, to 12.9mn tonnes, and to grow on average by 5.1% a year to 2018.
- Road freight tonnage expected to increase by 2.6% in 2014, to reach 447.36mn tonnes
Key Industry Trends
Ports Carry On Regardless: Thai ports have carried on operating...
The Thailand Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
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