Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/25/2014 -- There is short-term downside to our otherwise positive outlook for the Turkish consumer electronics market. Economic instability, including domestic access to credit, and the potential for the deteriorating security situation in neighbouring countries to spill over into Turkey could undermine the domestic political environment and growth story. However, our core outlook remains unchanged as we forecast rising incomes, development of retail and networking infrastructure and declining device prices in key categories should see strong medium-term spending growth. Key areas of spending growth include smartphones, tablets and smart TVs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: US$6.3bn in 2013 to US$6.8bn in 2014, +10.4% in US dollar terms. Boom in tablet sales, both to retail consumers and the government's FATIH initiative, key driver of spending growth.
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AV Sales: US$2.1bn in 2013 to US$2.2bn in 2014, +7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with sales dominated by TV replacements/upgrades, and smart TVs expected to outperform.
Handset Sales: US$4.9bn in 2013 to US$6.5bn in 2014, +52% in US dollar terms. The boom in smartphones sales has made the handset market the outperforming segment of the consumer electronics market.
Key Trends & Developments
- Smartphone sales growth in Turkey was the standout performer in 2013, with estimated sales of 14.3mn units - the first year in which smartphone sales exceeded traditional handsets in unit terms. The boom has occurred as a result of the deepening market as East Asian vendors have competed aggressively on price, bringing them into line with the mass market consumer in Turkey. BMI expects another strong year of growth in 2014, with device prices continuing to decline and operators promoting smartphones in marketing and via handset subsidies as they look to recoup investments in wireless data network infrastructure.
- The Turkish computer market is set to be boosted in 2014 by the provision of tablets under the FATIH project, the classroom computerisation initiative undertaken by the Turkish government. In November 2013 the tender for the FATIH project was completed, with the contract awarded to Turkish company Tepla, beating bids from established international vendors such as Samsung and Hewlett Packard, submitting the lowest bid of TRY409mn for 675,000 tablets, 550,000 covers and 125,000 keyboards. Tepla supplied the first batch of 50,000 General Mobile tablets in December 2013, with further deliveries set to take place through 2014. BMI considers the project positive for the modernisation of education in Turkey, and will also boost the computer segment, compensating for declining retail demand due to a weaker lira.
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