Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/13/2014 -- Turkey will remain heavily dependent upon oil and gas imports for the foreseeable future. However, its role as a critical energy transit hub between Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, the Caspian and Russia provides it with a unique form of leverage and makes it a key player in the global energy market. The decision to proceed with the TAP and TANAP natural gas pipelines cements Turkey's position as a critical transit country, and also secures 6bcm of new supplies for Turkey's domestic market. There is also upside potential to the country's domestic energy production in the form of Black Sea reserves and unconventional development, although it remains too early for either to be factored into our forecasts. Mounting investment into exploration activities underscores the government's growing commitment to increasing its own domestic resource base.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

- Turkey's improving relationship with Iraq is providing a potentially major new source of imports. Iraq already exports oil to Turkey via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline; however, new pipelines connecting the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan directly with Turkey have begun pumping oil to Ceyhan and could deliver as much as 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil by the end of Q1 2014 and 300,000b/d by the end of 2014. Turkey has stipulated that a go-ahead from Baghdad is required before oil is officially exported. Furthermore, a 10bcm gas supply agreement was made between the Turkish Government and Genel Energy, which owns the 100bcm Miran gas field in Kurdistan, increasing prospects for a new gas pipeline connection.
- A final investment decision was made on phase II of the Shah Deniz project in Azerbaijan. Turkey will be a core transit country, responsible for delivering about 10bcm of gas to Europe via the Trans- Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) which will connect to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) on the border with Greece. TANAP will also connect to the existing Turkish gas transmission system and will transport 6bcm of gas for domestic use. The pipeline has been designed with the possibility to nearly double in capacity to 31bn cubic metres (bcm) if the demand scenario for such volumes evolves.
- The passing of the revised Petroleum Law (No.5486) highlights a significant step in Turkey's strategy to increase domestic oil and gas production. The new law creates a more level playing field by removing TPAO's privileged position in the Turkish upstream and improving licensing conditions in the country.
- Turkey remains a key player as major market for Eastern Mediterranean gas. Diplomatic relations with Israel have improved over 2013, while talks with Cyprus are becoming increasingly pragmatic. A continued pragmatic relationship between the three partners will be key in order for Turkey to diversify its gas supply, and Israel and Cyprus to benefit from sales.

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