Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/26/2014 -- We have been below consensus on Turkey's medium-term real GDP growth outlook since mid-2013, based on our view that the country's growth model, driven by a huge reliance on foreign borrowing to fund a rapid expansion of domestic credit, would no longer be viable in light of tightening global liquidity conditions. While signs of easing domestic demand were beginning to emerge by end-2013, destabilising political developments have exacerbated a downturn in investor sentiment, consumer and business confidence. Following an estimated 3.6% growth in 2013, we now forecast real GDP to expand by 1.5% and 3.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, well below consensus estimates of 2.3% and 4.0%.
The effect of lira depreciation in boosting export competitiveness, in conjunction with accelerating growth in the European Union, implies a fairly upbeat outlook for export growth in 2014. The European Union accounted for 41.5% of Turkey's total export market in 2013, concentrated in Germany and the UK where we expect domestic demand to play a more prominent role in economic growth.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
However, Turkey's high import dependency, primarily a result of a substantial energy deficit, will act to mitigate potential competitiveness gains. Higher input costs on the back of rising inflation and lira depreciation will have to be absorbed in firm's profit margins, or passed on to final export prices. In 2014, we expect the Port of Ambarli to experience the highest year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput growth rate with growth of just under 10% anticipated. Although this is below the two consecutive years of double-digit y-o-y growth at the port, it is still set to perform better than domestic rivals the Port of Izmir (3.00%), Port of Derice (4.00%) and Port of Haydarpasa (4.84%).
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9.70%; over the medium term to 2018 we project average annual growth of 7.58%.
- 2014 port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow 4.56%; over the medium term we project annual average growth of 6.49%.
- 2014 total trade growth forecast at 3.95%, down from an estimated 4.35% in 2013.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Transportation research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Poland Shipping Report Q2 2014
- Croatia Shipping Report Q2 2014
- Iran Shipping Report Q2 2014
- United States Shipping Report Q2 2014
- Brazil Shipping Report Q2 2014
- Indonesia Shipping Report Q2 2014
- Nigeria Shipping Report Q3 2014
- Saudi Arabia Shipping Report Q2 2014
- Vietnam Shipping Report Q3 2014
- Australia Shipping Report Q3 2014