Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/30/2015 -- We expect Ukraine to spend USD3.2bn on defence in 2015, a noticeable decline from previous years, despite the ongoing security situation. We expect Ukraine to spend less than USD4bn a year on defence through to 2018, rising to USD4.2bn in 2019.

As a result of Ukraine's political crisis and civil war, in 2014 Kiev decided to spend up to USD697mn on modernising the military. The conflict has exposed failings in the Ukrainian armed forces, including a lack of sophistication of the country's military equipment and the training levels of its troops.

We have given Ukraine an overall security risk index score of 49 out of 100 for 2015. On average, the country has had an overall security risk index of 58 for the period November 2007 up to and including 2015. We believe Ukraine has a high chance of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict, as well as a significant risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack. It remains vulnerable to high levels of crime.

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Despite acts of violence continuing after a ceasefire was concluded in September 2014, both Russia and Ukraine appear to want to solve the political crisis between them diplomatically. However, the tensions between the states are tangible, and there is every risk of open conflict between the two countries, or between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. For all intents and purposes, as of late 2014 eastern Ukraine remains one of the world's most dangerous potential flashpoints.

Since April 2014, the UN estimates that up to 3,600 people have lost their lives as a result of the civil war and political crisis. As of October 2014 popularity for Ukraine joining NATO had risen considerably. However, Kiev's membership of the organisation would almost certainly trigger an angry reaction from Russia. For this reason, NATO may not choose to accept any application from Kiev to join NATO. Such a move could also prove divisive within Ukraine, causing further suspicion within Ukraine's ethnic Russian...

The Ukraine Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ukraine Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world?s major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict, or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world?s ?wild card? low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.

BMI industry Forecast scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

- defence expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and USDbn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure per capita (USD); defence budget (local currency and USDbn).
- armed forces (to 2012): Manpower available for military service, Manpower fit for military service, Army Personnel, Navy Personnel, Air Force Personnel, Total armed forces, (?000) (% population).
- arms trade: Arms and ammunition exports and imports (USDmn); Bombs, grenades and missiles exports and imports (USDmn); Revolver and pistol exports and imports (USDmn); Military weapons excluding guns and swords exports and imports (USDmn).

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