Tech Analyst Jeff Kagan | AT&T Merger Argument is Crumbing

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As Industry Players Become Weaker In Recent Months

Atlanta, GA, August 6, 2011 — When AT&T Mobility announced their merger deal with T-Mobile back in the spring they pointed to a very competitive and robust wireless marketplace. After all, they said if the marketplace is that healthy then there is nothing to worry about with this merger.

Even if that argument were true, the wireless marketplace has since started to show weakness.

AT&T pointed to competition from companies like Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel, MetroPCS, Leap Wireless, Tracfone and other smaller firms. And during the spring, the industry looked healthy.

However since AT&T announced the merger, things have begun to slide downhill in the industry. Now several of those companies are in the early stages of having serious problems.

Just look at sudden poor performance of companies like Sprint Nextel, MetroPCS and Leap.

The question we have to ask, is this downturn caused by the announced AT&T T-Mobile merger, or is it something that would have happened anyway?

This is an interesting question that we need to learn the answer to first. AT&T’s original argument never really held much weight since AT&T and Verizon control around 70 – 80 percent of the marketplace.

Even AT&T showed weakness in its recent quarter compared with Verizon. That turns up the heat on AT&T to get the T-Mobile deal done, but does that mean it is good for the industry?

Is this just a bump in the industry road, or is it the sign of larger problems on the horizon for all. This question is key in deciding the merger and other industry shaping issues.

I have known and worked with AT&T several times over the last decade or two. I like the company and the executives. However this question is bigger than that. This question will affect the health of the industry going forward.

We know this deal is good for AT&T, but whether this is good or bad for the industry is the real question, which has to be answered.

Jeff Kagan

Tech Analyst

770 579 5810

jeff@jeffkagan.com

www.jeffkagan.com