Who Wins and Who Loses if AT&T T-Mobile Merger Blocked?

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Comment by Jeff Kagan, Telecom Industry Analyst

     

Jeff Kagan

Telecom Industry Analyst

     

AT&T would be one of the big losers. They would not solve their spectrum shortage problem. In fact they may be worse off than before the attempt because they would have to give $3billion in spectrum and $2billion to T-Mobile.

Of course the reason they wanted to acquire T-Mobile in the first place has lessened. Since Verizon Wireless started selling the iPhone, the pressure has been taken off of AT&T’s network. Next Sprint Nextel will start selling the same iPhone this fall taking more pressure off AT&T.

The problem will continue to grow as smart phones continue to grow and this will become a problem for all in the next few years unless we solve it, industry-wide, now.

T-Mobile will win if the merger is blocked. They would get $3billion in spectrum and $2billion in cash. That would help them grow in this wireless data world.

If the merger does take place the company would win, which means shareholders, but the customers may not. T-Mobile has more economical customers who prefer to spend less than those of AT&T and Verizon.

If the merger happens this means many workers would lose their jobs. Something that always happens with mergers.

Verizon Wireless may not win or lose.

Sprint Nextel would be a winner if this merger were blocked. They have had a rough several years. They have been growing stronger in recent quarters and that is the good news. However since this merger was announced Sprint growth has been hurt and would likely continue to be hurt.

The next attempt by AT&T to get this deal done may be to keep the spectrum and spin off customers and other parts of the business. This may also be good for Sprint helping them grow. So Sprint might win either way, whether the deal is killed or just re-done. The bad part for Sprint is if the original deal was done.

Smaller networks like MetroPCS, Tracfone, Cellular South and US Cellular will be better off without the merger as well. Competing against a giant is tough and wireless is increasingly becoming a land of the giants. Although there may not be a real difference in the perceived value of these companies.

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