Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/07/2014 -- We forecast refined metal production and consumption growth in Brazil from 2014-2018, with the automotive , construction , and infrastructure sectors being major drivers . While we maintain a constructive multi-year outlook, we expect 2014 will see relatively muted growth in the downstream metals sector on account of subdued private consumption and fixed-asset investment. We now forecast real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2014, down from our earlier forecast of 2.0%, though see growth accelerat ing in the years ahead.
Stronger Sector Performance In 2015 Onward
After a weaker 2014, we expect the Brazilian metals sector will see accelerating production and consumption in 2015 due to our forecast for improving economic fundamentals. We expect real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2015, and for real infrastructure industry growth to accelerate to 5.0%, boosting domestic metals producers. Private consumption and fixed-asset investment has continued to disappoint in 2014 after weakness last year, and we expect only muted growth in the next several quarters. We have revised down our 2014 forecast for real fixed investment growth to 3.0%, from 4.9%, underpinning the downgrade to our headline growth figure. Low business confidence, as well as companies' concern about rising electricity prices and potential electricity rationing, are likely to weigh on headline fixed investment growth this year, despite our Infrastructure team's forecast for a pick-up in real construction industry growth ( see 'Concession Programme Offers Short-Term Construction Boost', February 10).
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The majority of Brazilian metals production is consumed within the country, a trend we expect to continue, providing an opportunity for companies to increase revenues and profits in the domestic market in the years ahead as economic growth improves. Overall, we forecast that production growth will be...
The Brazil Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Brazil.
BMI's Brazil Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Brazil.
- Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazil metals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).
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