Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 01/07/2014 -- Political Uncertainty Is Holding Back Bulgarian Growth
If it weren't for the politics, after a period of fiscal austerity and the eurozone crisis, the Bulgarian economy would now be more than ready for a pretty impressive recovery. But politics have intervened on the downside. A deeply unhappy and angry electorate forced one government out of office earlier this year and has put its successor under threat of further big protests and upheavals. Not surprisingly, the centre-left coalition under Prime Minister Plamen Oresharksi - which prefers to call itself 'technocratic' - is proceeding with extreme caution. Some stimulus is being injected into the economy through an improving performance from net exports, together with the government's decision to reverse utility price increases and to allow the fiscal deficit to widen a little. But against this, high levels of political uncertainty have descended like an anaesthetic cloud on the country's economy, paralysing household consumption growth and putting investment on hold. In this context, BMI is holding to its previously stark predictions. Confirmed, in our view, by weak Q213 data, we predict GDP growth of only 0.5% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2014.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Since the economy has been almost at a standstill in 2013, we have trimmed back some of our estimates for the Port of Varna in that year. A recovery will make itself felt in 2014 as both gross tonnage and box traffic are set to rise at above-GDP rates. This is in part explained by a more promising outlook on the trade front: measured in real terms, 2014 trade will grow by 5.5%, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2013. Over the medium term, plans to concession the port's container operations offer upside risk. We highlight that there has not yet been any interest in this, and the country's privatisation drive is centred on concessioning ports on Bulgaria's part of the Danube River instead.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.3%; over the medium term (to 2018) we project an average annual increase of 4.6%.
- 2014 Port of Varna container throughput forecast to grow 6.0%; over the medium term we project a 6.7% average annual increase.
- 2014 total trade growth forecast at 5.5%.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Transportation research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Hong Kong Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Indonesia Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Croatia Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Estonia Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Vietnam Shipping Report Q1 2014
- China Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Iran Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Oman Shipping Report Q1 2014
- United Arab Emirates Shipping Report Q1 2014
- Philippines Shipping Report Q1 2014