Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/05/2015 -- Core Views

- Chilean real GDP growth hit bottom in 2014, and will accelerate modestly in 2015. An improving net exports position, combined with the government's fiscal stimulus and tailwinds from lower oil prices will support stronger economic activity, although headline growth will remain below the historical trend.
- Chile's ongoing external account rebalancing will continue in the coming years, as a weaker average peso bolsters the economic competitiveness of manufactured goods exports, offsetting weakness in mining exports. Moreover, structurally lower oil prices will reduce Chile's import bill, contributing to a widening of the goods trade surplus.
- The Chilean peso will remain under broad downside pressure from falling copper prices and a bull run in the US dollar over the coming quarters. However, structurally lower oil prices will bolster the country's terms of trade, helping the unit to stabilise following a significant sell-off.
- The Chilean government's expansionary fiscal policies will drive a widening of the nominal budget shortfall in 2015. Beyond 2015, the deficit will begin to gradually narrow as spending policies normalise and an increase in the corporate tax rate bolsters revenues.

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Major Forecast Changes

- Chile's 2014 tax reform law will be implemented gradually over a multi-year timeframe. This has encouraged us to modestly adjust our 2015-2017 forecasts for government revenues. As a result, our 2015 nominal fiscal deficit forecast of 1.9% marks a downward revision from our previous forecast for a 1.8% of GDP shortfall. Moreover, we have revised up our 2016 fiscal deficit forecast from 1.8% of GDP to 1.2%, and our 2017 forecast from 1.6% of GDP to 0.3%.

Risks To Outlook

- The plunge in market expectations of Chilean inflation amid declining oil prices poses downside risks to our interest rate forecast. Structurally lower oil prices could pave the way for the Banco Central de Chile to adopt a dovish bias during the second half of the...

The Chile Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Chile. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Chile's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Chile's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Chile's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Chile, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Chile Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Chile' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Chile through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Chile Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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