Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/13/2014 -- German p ork producers are facing a n export crisis after Russia imposed an embargo on EU food products. Russia was a key export market , and in the short term it will be difficult to find sufficient alternative markets. Looking further ahead , the picture is more positive , as German meat producers have already increased trade with East Asian countries. Grain producers are enjoying another strong harvest in 2014/15, although there are some concerns over wheat quality. This will determine Germany's success in gaining ground with North African countries at the expense of France. The situation remains very uncertain for sugar production , with major firms struggling and biofuel demand for beet at a low ebb. The dairy segment looks the strongest in the agribusiness complex , with export opportunities driving production increases for milk and processed dairy products.

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Key Forecasts:

- Milk production growth to 2018: 5.8% to 32.1mn tonnes. Modest growth will be supported by export demand and higher prices and held back by sluggish domestic consumption and the demise of smaller producers.

- Pork consumption growth to 2018: stagnant at 4.4mn tonnes. Although we expect lower prices to boost growth in 2014 and 2015, demand for pork has been on a downward trajectory since 2007 and we see no sustained let-up in this trend as consumers turn to healthier options.

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 14.4% to 25.6mn tonnes. Wheat will gain some ground at the expense of other grains and sugar beet.

- 2014 real GDP growth: 1.5%; up from 0.4% in 2013 and forecast to average 1.5% from 2014 until 2018.

- Consumer price inflation: 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014, up from 1.6% in 2013.

- BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value to shrink by 3.4% to USD34.22bn in 2014. Expected to shrink by 1.2% to USD35.0bn from 2013 to 2018.

Key Changes To Forecasts

The Germany Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Germany Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Germany.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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