Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/16/2014 -- Despite previous decline in sales of desktops and notebooks, as users substituted purchases to lower cost tablets, we expect solid growth of 4.1% in German IT spending in 2014 to EUR49.6bn. We expect hardware spending growth will underperform if substitution for cheaper devices continues. However, there is potential for stronger performance in our five-year forecast period to 2018, if ultra-thin notebooks and hybrids/convertibles gain traction with consumers. Software and services have a more positive outlook with cloud computing, machine-to-machine communications and big data analytics being key drivers over the medium term. Cloud computing is a particularly interesting market segment, with opportunities for local providers or global firms with a local presence, to capitalise on the negative impact of the Patriot Act and PRISM on perceptions of US providers.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: EUR12.5bn in 2013 to EUR13.0bn in 2014, and CAGR of 3.6% 2014-2018. Decline in desktop and notebook/netbook sales will be offset by growth in tablet and hybrid sales over the medium term.
Software Sales: EUR15.1bn in 2013 to EUR15.5bn in 2014, and CAGR of 2.9% 2014-2018. Political and economic uncertainty are weighing on corporate investments, but as confidence returns we expect sales growth to large enterprises and the Mittelstandt.
IT Services Sales: EUR20.1bn in 2013 to EUR21.0bn in 2014, and CAGR of 4.7% 2014-2018. We expect IT services will be the outperforming segment, with demand for cloud computing and big data services key opportunities.
Risk/Reward Rating: Germany's score was 80.0 out of 100.0. Germany ranked second in the Europe region in our latest RRR table, behind only the UK, and ahead of France.
Key Trends And Developments
Germany's cloud computing market offers greater opportunities for local service providers in the wake of the revelations around the NSA's PRISM intelligence gathering operations and the US government's continued unwillingness to forgo its spying and monitoring activities in Germany. These developments have in many end-users eyes confirmed fears existing since the Patriot Act, turning them away from US providers. A survey by the US-based Cloud Security Alliance estimated that US cloud providers offering file storage and computing in the cloud could lose 10% to 20% of the non-US market to rivals as a result of the PRISM scandal. Further, the survey found that 10% of non-US respondents had already cancelled a project with a US provider, while 56% would be less likely to use a US provider in future. Germany's cloud computing market is still in the early stages of development, but we expect the recent revelations will increase the onus on vendors to have a local presence in order to win new business. This should favour local providers, at least in the short-term until global players increase their local presence.
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