Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/17/2014 -- We are forecasting electricity generation in Indonesia to grow by 6.3% in 2014. This is lower than the 5-year historical average growth rate, which we attribute to slower economic growth and higher electricity prices. Our long-term growth forecasts for total electricity generation in Indonesia remain relatively unchanged, but we have significantly revised our long-term outlook for each of the different sources of electricity, based on a comprehensive review of the country's existing feedstock position and progress on the country's two Fast Track Programmes.
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We are forecasting electricity generation in Indonesia to grow by 6.3% in 2014. This is lower than the five-year historical average growth rate of 7.0%, which we attribute to slower economic growth and higher electricity prices. The slowing economy had prompted us to revise down our 2013 electricity generation growth estimate from 7.2% to 7.1% in the previous quarter.
Our long-term growth forecasts for total electricity generation in Indonesia remain relatively unchanged, with generation expected to grow an average of 6.5% per annum between 2014 and 2023. However, we have significantly revised our long-term outlook for each of the different sources of electricity, based on a comprehensive review of the country's existing feedstock position and progress on the country's two Fast Track Programmes (FTPs). We expect the share of oil-fired generation to decrease significantly over our long-term forecast period (from 2014 to 2023), and see coal-fired generation and non-hydropower renewables replacing it.
Key T rends A nd D evelopments
- The Indonesian government has raised the price of electricity by 15% since the start of 2013. All four increments of 4.3% were implemented successfully in January, April, July, and October.
- Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) has announced its intention to acquire coal mines, due to the strong historical and forecasted growth in coal consumption. Its subsidiary, PLN...
The Indonesia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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