Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/21/2014 -- Recent improvements in relations with the West bode well for the country's economy. That said, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme will ensure that risks to the outlook remain elevated.
The economy will return to growth in 2014, as improving relations with the West and better macroeconomic management, coupled with low base effects, will lead to an improved outlook for exports and increased business and consumer confidence.
Despite recent improvements, the Iranian rial will remain volatile in open market transactions over the coming quarters.
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Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and are projecting the economy to expand by 2.8% in real terms in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 2.4% growth. We expect macroeconomic management to improve following the victory of moderate cleric Hassad Rouhani in presidential elections in June 2013, which will contribute to accelerating growth over the medium term.
Key Risks To Outlook
A breakdown in negotiations over the country's nuclear programme could prompt us to revise our real GDP growth forecasts downward and our inflation forecasts upward.
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