Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/25/2014 -- While the November 2013 interim nuclear agreement was a positive development for Iran , it does not allow for additional oil sales. Based on the assumption that the current international sanctions regime remain s in place, production will stay close to its current 3.3-3.4 mn barrels per day ( b/d ) level in the short-to-medium term . Upside risk to production and exports exists from a hypothetical lifting of sanctions . However, a significant ramp-up in production and exports to pre-sanction levels would take (at the very least) three to four years from when sanctions are lifted. Years of underinvestment, maturing oil fields and a lack of field and well maintenance has damaged fields, possibly permanently destroying some of the country's production capacity. Gas production has been slowly edging higher. However, similarly to oil, a lack of access to capital and technology will prevent production to ramp-up sufficiently to meet galloping demand. This will translate into increasing gas shortages.
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We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:
- The country's oil reserves have increased in the past two years. In 2013, Iran's oil reserves were estimated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 155.5bn barrels (bbl), a 1.1% increase from the 2012 figure of 151.1bn bbl. While there is strong upside risk to oil and gas reserves, the crude export restrictions, the subsequent decrease in demand for Iranian oil, added to the lack of access to capital to develop more challenging fields mean that Iran has a limited capability to convert new discoveries into producing assets. Hence, while reserves could increase further, this will not necessarily translate into field development and increased production.
- Iranian oil production and exports have fallen substantially since 2011, on the back of ever-tightening sanctions against the current Iranian government. We estimate that crude (including lease...
The Iran Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iran including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iran Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iranian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iran to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iranian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iran.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs
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