Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/24/2014 -- We forecast that Iran will return to economic growth in 2014, with real GDP set to expand by 2.8% following our 2013 estimate of a 2.9% contraction. Container shipping also is set to take tentative steps to recovery. Risks to the upside to both of these forecasts are presented by the growing rapprochement between Iran and the international community. However, the country's shipping sector has been impacted severely by sanctions in recent years - another hit came in 2013 following the introduction of strengthened US sanctions on July 1, which resulted in all major shipping lines ceasing to call at Iranian ports. At the time of writing in April 2014, it appeared that shipping lines would be returning to Iran as rapprochement continued. However, this had not been confirmed and there were no indications as to when it was expected to happen.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 5.6%, and average growth of 6.5% to 2018.
- 2018 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.04mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - still not enough to match 2011 volumes.
- 2014 total real trade is forecast to return to growth at 4.3%, and average 2.1% to 2018.
Key Industry Trends
Jebel Ali Port Shipping Volumes From Iran Record Decline: The Jebel Ali Port in the UAE registered a decline of 300,000 standard container units in shipping volumes from Iran in 2013, according to the port's operator DP World. Sanctions imposed on Iran by the US and EU contributed to the decline.
DP World Plans Expansion With More Investments: DP World plans to expand further with investments across the UK, Africa and Iran, according to DP World Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem. DP's subsidiary DP Beyond Europe is extending its business rapidly in Africa as part of its expansion plan. The company plans to invest in the Middle East after the removal of international sanctions on Iran, as the country was one of its largest markets before the sanctions,...
The Iran Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Iran.
BMI's Iran Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Iran.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iranian shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Iran through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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