Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/11/2014 -- BMI forecasts 5.8% growth in vehicle sales in Mexico in 2014 on the back of an expected 5.4% increase in passenger car sales and 6.5% growth in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment.
Over the first three months of 2014, light vehicle sales in Mexico increased 1.6% y-o-y, to 251,124 units. Recent tax hikes have impacted private consumption in the opening months of 2014, and this has weighed on car sales as consumers delay big ticket purchases. We expect to see a broader pick-up in retail spending later in the year, however, as the impact of these taxes wanes, consumer confidence improves, and the labour market picks up. Accordingly, we maintain our forecast for 5.4% growth in passenger car sales in 2014.
Heavy truck sales in Mexico declined 30.6% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2014, to 2,717 units. Manufacturing and construction activity in the start of the year also came in below expectations. BMI believes that this, combined with the Q413 surge in heavy truck sales as sentiment in the market improved, created a surplus in the segment, prompting new truck orders to plummet. However, we expect to see something of a correction in the coming months, although sales are likely to remain poor due to the very weak Q114 figures. We maintain our forecast for a decline of 10% over the full year.
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Light vehicle production in Mexico increased 6.5% y-o-y in the first three months of 2014, to 774,731 units. In 2014, BMI forecasts 5.8% growth in passenger car production and a 5.3% increase in light commercial vehicle (LCV) output as exports look set to gain ground over the year and the domestic market will recover from Q214. Exports took a hit in January, and this explains the lacklustre growth in output over the yea-to-date - we expect this to pick-up in the coming months, however.
In Q114, Mexico's light vehicle exports increased 8.6% y-o-y, to 606,204 units, constituting some 75.7% of output during this period. We expect to see total export volumes continue to pick up over the...
The Mexico Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Mexico Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Mexico.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican automotives market.
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