Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/06/2015 -- Core Views

- We hold an increasingly positive view of Ireland's prospects of an economic recovery over the next few years.

- We forecast above-consensus real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2014, underpinned by our view that consumer spending will begin playing a bigger role in the recovery.

- Ireland will maintain its competitive advantage in the service export sector.

- However, the country's favourable corporate tax regime is likely to come under increasing international pressure in 2014, damaging the country's reputation within the EU and placing government under increasing scrutiny.

Major Forecast Changes

- We have revised-up our forecasts for real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2014, from a forecast of 2.1% previously, against the backdrop of our increasingly bright outlook for consumer spending.

Key Risks To Outlook

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- Risks to our relatively positive growth outlook for Ireland are posed by the potential for any significant downturn in consumer sentiment, possibly the product of a credit event in another eurozone country or fears of a growth slowdown.

- Although Ireland has made significant progress tackling its growing public debt, exiting its EU/IMF bailout in 2014, the large budget deficit implies that there is still a long way to go before the country is completely out of the woods.

The Ireland Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ireland. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ireland's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Ireland's economic and industry growth through end-2019.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise Ireland's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ireland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Ireland Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ireland' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ireland through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Ireland Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.

- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.

- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).

- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

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