Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/30/2014 -- We have upgraded our 10-year average real GDP growth from 3.8% to 4.1%, following the passage of energy sector reform, which we expect will garner significant foreign investment in the coming years. We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.
The latest release of GDP data show that manufacturing in Mexico grew 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the third quarter of 2013. In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that autos manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico. The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the coming years.
Headline Industry Data
- Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.8% in 2014, to reach 108.05mn tonnes.
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 2.3% in 2014, to reach 517.102mn tonnes.
- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 3.6% in 2014, to reach 118,248mn tonnes.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2014 is estimated to hit 7.2% growth to reach 30.8mn tonnes.
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Key Trends And Developments
Mexico City In Line For Air Cargo Boost View Related Content: Mexico City's Benito Juarez International Airport (MEX) is planning a year of cargo recovery in 2014, with the airport set to welcome more freight traffic in Q114, as both Cathay Pacific and IAG Cargo expand their Mexico operations. The growth outlook for Mexico's air freight demand remains robust, driven by the country's expanding economy and growing consumer sector.
Mexico Rail Investment Focus To Boost Freight And Logistics Connections: Investment in Mexico's rail freight network offers to strengthen logistics connections in the country and further diversify the freight transport sector away from road. Economic growth projections for Mexico will place further pressure on the country's freight transport network, and currently Mexico's railroads are transport infrastructure underperformers.
Maersk Line Expanding On Intra-America Routes: Global container shipping company Maersk Line's launch of its new intra-America service signals what BMI believes will become a trend, as shipping lines increase their exposure to the intra-America market in time for the completion of the Panama Canal expansion in 2015. This intra-America trend will be supported by a strong US-Latin America trade relationship, and will be further bolstered by the US' strengthening macroeconomic outlook.
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