Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/15/2014 -- Core Views:

- The Peruvian economy will expand at lower average rates in the coming years as a decline in metals prices weighs on private investment into mining and results in slower export growth.

- However, private consumption and public investment will remain relatively resilient in the coming years due to a rising middle class and an extensive infrastructure project pipeline.

Major Forecast Changes:

- Real GDP growth fell below our expectations in H114, coming in at 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), driven by weak exports and investment, prompting us to downgrade our growth forecast. We now project real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2014 and 4.0% in 2015, compared with our previous projections of 4.5% and 5.0% for 2014 and 2015 respectively.

- With the Peruvian sol taking a substantial leg lower in recent weeks, in line with poor balance of payments dynamics likely to continue weighing on the currency in the coming months, we have revised our average exchange rate forecasts for the next few years to account for greater weakness, forecasting the unit to average PEN2.830/USD in 2014 and PEN2.900/USD in 2015.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Key Risks To Outlook:

- Downside Risks To Growth : Slower-than-expected growth in China, especially stemming from the dynamics of a rapidly cooling property market and high domestic debt (see 'Positive GDP Print Masks Lurking Weaknesses', July 16), could weigh further on investment and metals exports in Peru.

The Peru Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Peru and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Peru's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Peru's economic and industry growth through end-2018.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise Peru's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Peru, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Peru Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Peru economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Peru through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Peru Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.

- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.

- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).

- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 800-844-8156

Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Russia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Latvia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Australia Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q4 2014
- Bahrain Business Forecast Report Q4 2014