Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 12/06/2012 -- BMI View: Mexico's agribusiness and agricultural sectors remain buoyant despite challenging climactic conditions and the presence of disease, including an outbreak of avian flu in June and July 2012. From January to July 2012, the value of Mexico's agricultural exports increased by 10.9% year-on-year (y-oy), recording a commercial value of US$7.13bn. During the first half of 2012, the value of Mexico's food exports, including agricultural and agribusiness, stood at US$12.5bn, up by 4.3% y-o-y, according to the Secretary for Food and Competitiveness of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food. The main destinations for exports of Mexican food products were the US, Japan and Canada.
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- Mexican GDP growth remains robust, although BMI believes that growth is set to decelerate through the remainder of 2012 and into 2013. We see GDP increasing by 3.8% year-on-year (yo- y) in 2012 and 3.4% y-o-y in 2013. Inflation stood at 4.4% in July, a result of supply-side pressure.
- Early signs suggest that 2012/13 could be a better year for Mexico's corn producers, with output forecast to rise as a result of more favourable weather conditions and improved yields. Production is forecast to rise by 20.4% y-o-y to 21.8mn tonnes. However, wheat production is forecast to fall by 10.4% y-o-y to 3.3mn tonnes as a result of a decline in area planted.
- Wheat consumption is forecast to grow strongly by 21.0% y-o-y in 2012 to reach 7.8mn tonnes, boosted by demand for durum wheat from the livestock sector on the back of favourable prices. However, we see demand dropping by 11.0% y-o-y in 2013 to 7.0mn tonnes owing to a fall in use of wheat for feed. As the Mexican economy recovers, we see domestic demand for wheat rising, due to the increasing popularity of bread. Out to 2016, we see wheat consumption expanding by 11.8% on the 2011 level to reach 7.2mn tonnes.
- In 2012/13, we see rice production rising by 18.4% y-o-y to 148,000 tonnes, as the area planted grows by 28.6% y-o-y to 45,000 hectares. Out to 2015/16, we see production increasing by 17.8% on the low 2010/11 level to reach 172,000 tonnes.
- We now forecast that coffee production for 2011/12 will increase by 11.3% y-o-y to 4.5mn bags. In July 2012, coffee exports for the 2011/12 market year, which started on October 1, stood at 2.74mn bags, up by 18.0% on the same period a year previously, according to Amecafe data. Out to 2016, coffee production is forecast to increase by 18.0% on the 2011 level.
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