Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/18/2014 -- While conflicts between various tribes and ethnicities were already ongoing in both countries, the descent into full-scale armed conflict in South Sudan has major negative implications for both countries, significantly curtailing growth and deteriorating the external accounts.
Major Forecast Changes
We have downgraded our forecast for South Sudan's growth in 2014, from 21.1% to 10.6%, owing to the disruptions associated with the conflict.
We have made an upward revision to South Sudan's inflation for 2014 as shortages are expected to occur. We now see inflation rising to 24.2% year-on-year by end-2014, compared to our previous projections of 12.0%.
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We have upgraded our forecasts for Sudan's budget deficit due to the latest data released by the IMF, and now expect the 2014 fiscal shortfall to equal 2.5% of GDP, compared to earlier estimates of 7.3%.
Key Risks To Outlook
Political risk remains the most salient threat to our outlook, as a further deterioration of the security situation could further threaten the economic stability and long-term outlook for both countries.
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