Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/06/2014 -- Azerbaijan continues to progress with plans to build a refinery and petrochemicals complex to add value to the country's considerable energy reserves and rising gas output. While the complex is planned for completion in 2017/18, BMI's latest Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report believes the expansion, which promises to transform the country into a significant net exporter of polymers, is unlikely to come onstream in the next five years due to continued delays in the project.
Already, the past year has seen Azerbaijan Methanol Company (AzMeCo) begin operations at its new US $360mn plant. The plant has a capacity of 560,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), raising methanol production in Azerbaijan to 720,000tpa. About 90% of the output is set to be exported.
Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The government of Azerbaijan also plans to increase polyethylene production from 72,200tpa in 2011 to 120,600tpa in 2015. The country is also set to start production of polypropylene (PP) in 2014, with 58,300 tonnes produced in the first year of operations and 61,800 tonnes in 2015. BMI believes these targets are likely to be realised.
- The medium-term focus will be SOCAR's Oil-Gas Processing and Petrochemical Complex (OGPC), which will have total gas processing capacity of 10-12bn cubic metres (bcm) and oil refining capacity of 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa). The complex is now scheduled to come fully on-stream in 2017/18, although BMI is sceptical about the pace of growth and has not included the project in the forecasts. Construction is now due to begin in 2014, having been delayed from mid-2013 in initial announcements. Capacities will include 700,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and lowdensity polyethylene (LDPE), 550,000tpa polypropylene (PP), 40,000tpa benzene and 110,000tpa styrene.
- Azerbaijan is in 16th and last place in BMI's proprietary Europe Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), with a score of 35.4 points, up 0.1 point since the previous quarter due to an improvement in country risk. Azerbaijan is 4.2 points behind Bulgaria.
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