Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/14/2014 -- Romania's pharmaceutical market will post moderate growth over the short term due to continued focus on price controls, limited reimbursement of pharmaceuticals and stubbornly high unemployment levels. Unemployment levels and the state of Romania's economy directly impact revenues for the state insurer; while the country's economic picture in early 2014 is improving, the benefits will not be felt until the medium term. These issues continue to weigh down our assessment of the Romanian pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Q214.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: RON13.96bn (US$4.17bn) in 2013 to RON14.51bn (US$4.10bn) in 2014; +4.0% in local currency terms and -1.7% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast revised down from Q114 due to leu depreciation.
- Healthcare: RON36.85bn (US$11.00bn) in 2013 to RON38.88bn (US$10.97bn) in 2014; +5.5% in local currency terms and -0.3% in US dollar terms.
Romania has a RRR score of 55.0 out of 100, making it the sixth-most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Central and Eastern Europe region. Although over the long term Romania promises a positive growth story, punitive taxes, pricing controls and a lack of funding by the state for reimbursing patients will moderate the market's attractiveness to drugmakers in the short term
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Key Trends And Developments
- Romania faces a brain drain of skilled medical professionals, as border restrictions are lifted in all Western European countries.
- Export bans on specific cancer medicines and hepatitis drugs have been imposed after a shortage was reported countrywide as parallel exports picked up.
- Drugmakers have called for changes to the calculation of the clawback tax; generic drugmakers are specifically calling for a loosening of the tax burden placed on them versus innovative drugmakers.
- In March 2014, the reimbursement list will finally be updated, although we believe generic drugs will primarily see inclusion on the new list at the expense of patented medicines.
- Having secured IMF funding, as part of its credit deal, Romania will have to pay off its debts to drugmakers and suppliers to its healthcare system. The IMF is also pushing for Romania to increase its tax base, reform its healthcare system and increase its healthcare expenditure to meet its demographic changes.
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