Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/23/2014 -- We expect to see cocoa prices growing in the coming years on the back of production deficits and recovering demand in Europe. This should spell good news for the Ghanaian cocoa industry, but our growth forecasts are tempered by concerns over the future of government support. Cocoa plantations are badly in need of the improved crops and fertiliser inputs the state has provided. Corn production is expected to fall slightly as acreages have been reduced, but we see output recovering to the 2012/13 level by the end of the forecast period as government and non-governmental organisations (NGO) support leads to improving yields. Consumption of livestock products is expected to increase at a moderate pace as economic growth will see urban households increase their animal protein intake. Domestic output of poultry, pork and beef will be modestly successful as overseas competitors stand to gain the most.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
- Cocoa production growth to 2017/18: 26.7% to 1.1mn tonnes. Most of this growth will be due to base effects, however, we also expect significantly higher cocoa prices over the medium term owing to poor supply
- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 0.0% to 2.0mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. Although we see stagnant growth over the forecast period, it should be noted that 2012/13 was an exceptional year.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 5.1% (down from an estimated 6.6% in 2013; predicted to average 6.4% from 2014 to 2018).
- 2014 consumer price inflation (eop): 11.9% (down from 13.5% in 2013).
The Ghanaian currency, the cedi (GHS), lost almost a fifth of its value against the US dollar over the course of 2013. Although we expect the rate of depreciation to slow in 2014, the current account deficit will likely remain sizeable at around 10.0% of GDP amid lower prices for gold and oil exports. The weakness of the cedi has meant that the minimum price offered by the government to producers in the local currency is worth less that that put in place by the authorities in neighbouring Cote d'Ivoire. This has encouraged smuggling across the border between the two countries as it is cost effective for smugglers to pay a higher price than the government to Ghanaian farmers. Local reports suggest that smugglers have trafficked around 40,000 tonnes of Ghanaian cocoa beans into Cote d'Ivoire since November 2013. This will reduce cocoa bean available for local processing and poses a risk to our consumption forecasts, which are based on grindings.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Food research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
- France Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
- Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
- Russia Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
- Bangladesh Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
- Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q2 2014
- China Agribusiness Report Q2 2014
- Colombia Agribusiness Report Q2 2014
- India Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
- Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q2 2014