Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/13/2014 -- BMI maintains its positive outlook on Peru's shipping and port sector. While we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and a growing consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years.

There are downside risks, nevertheless, with exports to China comprising over 15.0% of total exports in 2012 and the mining sector and related industries heavily dependent on foreign investment. Underdeveloped infrastructure, capacity constraints, declines in major mining firms' capital expenditure programmes and continued social unrest could also weigh on shipping volumes. Because of these risks, we maintain our below-consensus view on real GDP growth, and anticipate a wider current account deficit and further currency weakness over the next few years.

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Headline Industry Data:

- In 2014, we are projecting box traffic at Callao to grow by 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.9mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- In 2014, we expect growth of 3.9% in total tonnage throughput at Callao to 2.9mn tonnes.

Key Industry Trends

Yurimaguas Port To Boost Inland Trade: The Peruvian government hopes the construction of Loreto's major port terminal, dubbed the Yurimaguas port, will improve Peru's connectivity to the inland markets of Brazil, according to Peruvian President Ollanta Humala.

Consorcio Paracas Wins USD182.4mn Port Construction Project: The Peruvian government has awarded a port contact worth USD182.4mn to Consorcio Paracas, a consortium of Brazilian-Spanish firms. The contract is for constructing and operating the terminal port near the country's southern coastal city of Pisco.

Key Risks To Outlook

We believe that global demand for Peruvian mineral exports is on the decline. As China, the largest consumer of copper, experiences lower rates of economic...

The Peru Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Peru.

BMI's Peru Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Peru.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Peru through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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